662 
FXUS61 KGYX 251633
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1133 AM EST MON JAN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH CROSSED THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING ACCOMPANIED BY A
FEW CLOUDS AND WIDELY SCATTERED MOUNTAIN FLURRIES. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EAST INTO THE REGION TODAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. ON TUESDAY...A TROUGH WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES BRINGING WARMER
TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH SCATTERED LATE DAY RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. THE
TROUGH EXITS BY WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO HIGH PRESSURE AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES. A COASTAL STORM MAY DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN BRUSH THE AREA BY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON/...
UPDATE...LATEST UPDATE WAS TO UTILIZE MESOSCALE MODELS FOR CLOUD
AND WIND FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS. SOME
LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS CROSSING THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS OF
ME/NH AND WILL CONTINUE TO HEAD SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE REGION. OTHERWISE...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WITH
LITTLE WIND AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES.

PREV DISC...
600 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO REFLECT CURRENT
SATELLITE TRENDS AND TO INGEST THE LATEST MESONET VALUES INTO NEAR
TERM GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
GOES INFRARED SHOWED A FEW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE
IMPULSE RACING EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THE KGYX DOPPLER RADAR WAS
SHOWING SCATTERED LIGHT RETURN WITH MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY FAILING
TO REACH THE GROUND. FOR TODAY...GRADUALLY DECREASING CLOUDS
BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
EASTWARD INTO THE REGION. IT'LL BE A SEASONABLE DAY WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /5 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE BY EVENING WITH DEVELOPING
WARM AIR ADVECTION IN RETURN FLOW GENERATING A FEW CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S. 

ON TUESDAY...SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MORNING SUNSHINE SHOULD BOOST
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM 30S IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO LOWER AND MID 40S ELSEWHERE. BY AFTERNOON...CLOUDS
BEGIN TO ARRIVE FROM THE WEST IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH
BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS CONFINED LARGELY TO THE
CONNECTICUT VALLEY AND HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT WX: NONE EXPECTED.

500 MB PATTERN STILL TRYING TO LOCK IN ON +PNA...BUT NEVER REALLY
SETTLE IN...AND NAO/AO TREND TO THE POSITIVE AS WELL. THIS WILL
LEAD TO AN ACTIVE PERIOD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...WITH WAVES MOVING
THROUGH A SW SKEWED ZONAL FLOW. OVERALL NONE OF THESE SYSTEMS IS
IMPRESSIVE...BUT WILL BRING FREQUENT CHC POPS FOR SOME LIGHT
PRECIP MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK RIGHT THRU THE WEEKEND. ALSO...THE
TREND WILL BE FOR TEMPS GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL...WITH A FEW SHOTS
OF COLD AIR COMING IN NEAR NORMAL.

SENSIBLE WX THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL CONSIST OF MORE SHOWERY TYPES
OF WEATHER. COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA AROUND WED MORNING...WITH
SHSN POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THE MTNS TUE NIGH INTO WED. THE MOST
INTERESTING FEATURE OF THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE CLIPPER TYPE
SYSTEM THAT MOVES SW INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON THU...AND THEN TRACKS
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON FRI. THE MODELS DO DIFFER...WHERE THE 00Z
EURO PHASES THE CLIPPER WITH A SRN STREAM WAVE AND PRODUCES A SFC
LOW OFFSHORE...THE GFS KEEPS BOTH SYSTEMS SEPARATE AND THE CLIPPER
WEAKENS AS IT TRACKS N OF THE CWA. THE GGEM IS SOMETHING OF A
COMPRISE WITH A WEAKER OFFSHORE SYSTEM...AND MORE OF AN INVERTED
TROUGH DEVELOPING BETWEEN THE CLIPPER AND THE OFFSHORE LOW. ANY OF
THESE SYSTEMS COULD BRING PRECIP TO THE AREA...SO CHC POPS ON FRI
ARE REASONABLE....AND MAY EVEN SEE SOME RAIN ON THE COAST WITH
SNOW EVERYWHERE ELSE. FOR NOW...NONE OF THESES SOLNS WOULD BRING
ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIP...BUT THE MODEL DISAGREEMENT SUGGEST ITS
SOMETHING THAT SHOULD BE MONITORED. AFTER THIS...A SERIES OF WAVES
IN THE SW FLOW COULD PRODUCE SHOWERS AGAIN ON SUNDAY AND THEN
ANOTHER CHC EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TEMPS WILL BE BE ON THE PLUS SIDE OF NORMAL THRU MOST OF THE
PERIOD...AND TUE NIGHT WILL BE SOMEWHAT BALMY FOR LATE JAN WITH
LOWS UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S. HIGHS WED...AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
ALSO CLIMB INTO THE 30S AND LOW 40S. TEMPS SCALE BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL BEHIND THE FRONT ON THU AND PROB INTO FRI...WITH THE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH. THEN TEMPS PUSH BACK ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND
WITH HIGHS LOW 30S TO LOW 40S...N TO S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR. SCT MVFR BTW 20Z TUE AND 04Z WED IN MTN
-SHRA/-SHSN.

LONG TERM...OTHER THAN SOME TEMP FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN SHSN TUE
NIGHT AND WED...EXPECTING VFR THROUGH THU. WILL BE WATCHING
POSSIBLE OFFSHORE STORM...WHICH COULD PRODUCE A PERIOD OF MVFR-IFR
LATE THU NIGHT AND FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SEAS AOA 5 FT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON
OUTSIDE THE BAYS AND NO CHANGE TO CURRENT SCA HEADLINE IS PLANNED.
WE'LL DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT LATE TODAY WITH CONDITIONS CONTINUING
THROUGH TONIGHT. ON TUESDAY WE'LL SEE SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASE
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH SMALL CRAFT FOR THE BAYS AND GUSTS TO
GALE ELSEWHERE. 


LONG TERM...SW GALES TUE NIGHT WILL DROP OFF TO NW SCA BEHIND A
COLD FRONT ON WED...AND EVENTUALLY DIMINISH BY THU.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS 
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
JC